The Re-election of Donald Trump and its Implications
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By Bernd J. Fischer
Professor Emeritus ,Indiana University
On November 6th the world woke to what was, for many, an unexpected event, the re-election of Donald Trump as president of the United States. Since then, there has been considerable speculation generated concerning how this happened, and some anxiety about what this election might mean for the United States, for the world as a whole, and for the Balkans.
Many have wondered how a 78-year-old convicted felon who has been found liable for sexual assault and is currently under indictment in a number of jurisdictions was able to achieve this result. There are, of course, a plethora of theories, some of which certainly constitute contributing factors. Among them we have heard about the fact that Kamala Harris had only four months to campaign while Trump had over four years, that Ms. Harris was unable to distance herself sufficiently from Joe Biden, that the Democratic Party was unable to attract more than just college-educated urban elites, that Ms. Harris was unable to sufficiently articulate her program, and that misogyny and racism are still alive and well in the United States.
While many of these factors were important, I will argue that there is another more significant element at play, and that is a deliberate, persistent disinformation campaign conducted by actors both inside and outside of the United States. Domestic actors include the vast right-wing media complex, including Fox News, Newsmax, One America News Network, the Sinclair network of radio, TV stations and newspapers, iHeart Media, the Bott Radio Network, Elon Musk’s X, large podcasts like Joe Rogan’s and more. Foreign actors included Russian bots, particularly on X and other social media, which the Office of Director of National Intelligence, the FBI, and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency have been warning us about for months. The Russians constructed a virtual political reality through modern media, a phenomenon which their political theorists call “political technology.” X users noted a dramatic drop in their followers on November 6th, likely as bots, no longer necessary, disengaged. These sources of disinformation together commanded a combined audience far larger than that reached by the so-called legacy media and they delivered a consistent story.
What were some aspects of this disinformation story? While its totality is expansive, some of the more important falsehoods which Americans were told, and an inordinate number of Americans believed, include, the notion that the 2020 election was stolen from Mr. Trump, that crime exploded under Mr. Biden, that the supply-chain driven inflation of 2020-21, which impacted the world as a whole, was exclusively Mr. Biden’s fault, that the southern U.S. border has been thrown open allowing an invasion of violent criminals who eat people’s pets to flood American cities and towns, that the American economy, which the Economist tells us is the envy of the world at this moment, is rotten and deteriorating, that Mr. Trump’s legal issues were all politically driven, and that only Mr. Trump, the uber-successful business person, could fix all of these problems. The above constitutes a mere sample of the many falsehoods peddled to Americans. And it might serve as a cautionary tale concerning an independent and responsible media.
With regard to the implications of this election for the U.S., there are of course many. Mr. Trump will have fewer guardrails, has been given greater leeway by the Supreme Court and doesn’t need to be concerned with re-election. I do not, however, believe that American democracy is in real danger. But because Mr. Trump has little respect for either the constitution or the rule of law, democracy will certainly be tested. Mr. Trump will use every lever of power at his disposal, and he will become a very powerful president. But American institutions are strong and frankly Mr. Trump is too lazy and chaotic to be a dictator. With regard to his many promises, since he promised all things to all people there will inevitably be deep disappointment. There is also the question of how long he might remain in power. His pronounced mental and physical deterioration makes it possible that someone will need to take his place at some point in the next four years. J.D. Vance, the vice-president elect, is difficult to read since he began his career as vociferously anti-Trump but now parrots Mr. Trump’s every word. He is a post-liberal and a recently converted Catholic so will remain a culture-war crusader, but his other priorities remain something of a mystery.
Many of Mr. Trump’s most extreme promises will likely not come to fruition. He will not round up 20 million people put them in concentration camps and then deport them. Not only is the cost of such a program prohibitive, estimated at 88 to 315 billion a year, but much of the U.S. economy depends on undocumented immigrants and Republican businessmen will certainly object to losing their workers. If Mr. Trump makes good on his promise to put 10-20% tariffs on all foreign imports and 60% on imports from China, the economy will suffer as will the American consumer. Mr. Trump’s promise to lower consumer costs is in direct contradiction to his tariff promise since tariffs are paid by consumers. The heightened culture wars will disadvantage women as well as marginalized groups like immigrants – documented or not – and the LGBTQ+ community. The environment will suffer.
From an international perspective, there is also the potential for damage. First it is important to keep in mind that Mr. Trump is, in the estimation of a top-level White House official from his first term, “…lethally incompetent, and stunningly ignorant of virtually anything related to governing, history, geography, human events or world affairs.” When one adds to this the MAGA mantra of “America First” it seems clear that we will see a certain realignment and a certain disengagement. Mr. Trump’s penchant for dictators and authoritarians, like Mr. Putin, Mr. el-Sisi, Mr. Orban and MBS, is well known. It is likely that he will allow these individuals greater leeway to accomplish their aims, thereby weakening the rules-based international order established after the Second World War. In terms of Mr. Putin, he will likely insist that Ukraine cede territory to Russia. Mr. Trump is suspicious of international organizations, including the UN, the EU and NATO. Foreign aid programs will likely be severely curtailed. Mr. Trump has vowed to reinstate and expand the Muslim travel ban which he enacted during his first term. Much of course will depend on who is appointed as Secretary of State. At this point Richard Grenell, who famously accused Arbin Kurti’s LVV of using terror tactics, seems to be in the running.
Mr. Trump has little knowledge of and even less interest in the Balkans, despite the fact that his wife is a native of the region. It is likely that he will defer to those Europeans he has the closest rapport with, including the British anti-immigrant, anti-EU crusader Nigel Farage and of course Hungary’s Viktor Orban. Mr. Orban was one of the first to congratulate him and soon after posted on social media that “We have big plans for the future!” Mr. Orban believes that the historical liberal democracy of the United States weakens a nation because the equality it champions undermines traditional patriarchal society. In place of democracy, Mr. Orban champions “illiberal democracy” or “Christian democracy.” This form of government holds nominal elections, although their outcome is preordained because the government controls all the media and had silenced the opposition. Mr. Orban’s model of minority rule promises a return to a white-dominated religiously based society, and he has pushed his vision by eliminating the independent press, cracking down on political opposition, undermining the rule of law, and dominating the economy with a group of crony oligarchs. Internationally Mr. Orban is no friend of the EU or NATO and no friend of Ukraine. He is closer to Russia, and this will likely increase Russian influence in the region. Mr. Orban will influence Mr. Trump in the direction of his priorities. How will all of this impact Albania? While the specifics are still unclear, I believe that the best Albania can hope for is the status quo. In the final analysis it is frankly difficult to see how Albania could in any way be advantaged by the re-election of Donald Trump.