TIRANA, Feb. 1 – A strategy of convergence – starting with recognition of Kosovo by four holdout NATO member states – should be used in resolving the decades-long dispute between Kosovo and Serbia and turn around current concerning trends in the Western Balkans – including growing Russian and Chinese influence, key experts layout in a new proposal.
Recognition of Kosovo’s independence by Spain, Slovakia, Romania and Greece would be the first step in the transformation of dialogue, according to the strategy, which also proposes a different handling of Serbia’s “illiberal regime,” holding it to the same standards as all other countries of the region, which the experts say the West is currently not doing.
The proposals are laid out in the recently published report “From Crisis to Convergence: A Strategy to Tackle Balkans Instability at its Source” by the Foreign Policy Institute at Johns Hopkins SAIS and Wilson Center’s Global Europe Program, authored by several experts based in key countries mentioned in the strategy – Edward P. Joseph, lead author (United States), Branislav Radeljic (Serbia), Lulzim Peci (Kosovo), Iulia Joja (Romania), Jan Cingel (Slovakia) and Pol Vila Sarria (Spain).
Recognition of Kosovo by the four holdout NATO members “would transform the moribund EU-led Dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina, and the entire region, including Bosnia-Herzegovina,” the report notes, adding convincing the four and EU member Cyprus to recognize Kosovo will not be easy, so it will require a determined effort by the Biden Administration, in tandem with key allies, to convince the non-recognizers to change their stance.
“Instead of pressing all the outliers to recognize Kosovo immediately, this report advocates a U.S.-led strategy of non-recognizer ‘convergence’ with the majority EU and NATO stance, achieved by: Establishing the centrality of a common Western position on Kosovo and identifying and effecting steps below the level of recognition that erode Serbian leverage and signal to Belgrade and Pristina significant evolution of the position of the non recognizers,” the report points out.
Albert Rakipi, Chairman of the Albanian Institute for International Studies told Tirana Times the proposed strategy is a very comprehensive paper full of substance, offering clear ideas and a strategic vision.
“For the first time we have a road map to resolve the frozen conflict in the Balkans and address the related security and development issues there,” Rakipi said.
More American pressure urged
The report’s authors say the work on the strategy would start working principally with Greece, to advance the date of “inevitable” Greek recognition of Kosovo – while working across the EU and the NATO alliance “to protect, not expose, Athens.”
“Implementing unilateral steps by the Biden Administration, including the appointment of a ‘Special Envoy for Kosovo Recognition,’ coupled with an express U.S. warning to sanction any leader in Albania or Kosovo who promotes any ‘union’ between the two independent countries,” the report notes.
The authors also point out that opening the way for Kosovo to join NATO is key. “Convergence of the non-recognizer position with the EU and NATO majority will alter Serbia’s strategic calculus, allowing Belgrade to accept the Western order Kosovo’s clear pathway to NATO easily surmounts the pathway to UN membership blocked by Russia and China. UN membership is far less important for Kosovo, and is unnecessary for Pristina to join the Alliance. With Kosovo headed towards NATO membership, the value of Russian and Chinese political support for Belgrade would collapse,” the authors highlight.
On EU integration, the strategy of convergence would also remove a primary excuse – stagnation and turmoil in the region – for key enlargement skeptics in Europe, the authors write.
Border changes are too much of a risk
The strategy would also open the way for a Kosovo settlement that impedes ‘Greater Albania’ and ‘Greater Serbia.’ The more unitary the Republic of Kosovo, with the country’s north and south intact, the less feasible is any “union of Kosovo and Albania.”
“Kosovo would move from the catalyst for the violent dissolution of Yugoslavia to the keystone for democratic stability in the region. By contrast, outright partition of Kosovo, would lead inevitably to the exodus of the Serb community in the south of the country, making ‘Union’ a foregone conclusion,” according to the report. “In turn, ‘Union’ would spur ‘Greater Albania’ separatism in North Macedonia and Montenegro, reinforcing and legitimizing the pursuit of ‘Greater Serbia’ from Belgrade. The door to protracted instability, mass population movements and conflict across the region would be open for Russia and China to exploit. Convergence closes it.”
Serbia needs to accept Western order, democratize
The authors pinpoint one major reason for the deterioration of the situation in the Western Balkans: The fact that one country – Serbia – does not accept the Western order for the region.
“Democratic stability in the region is inherently tied to democratic stability within Serbia. Rather than a morass of intractable grievances, the Balkans are mired principally because one country – and one regime – is fundamentally unaffiliated with and uncommitted to the Western order. The struggle to resolve Croat-Bosniak electoral differences in Bosnia-Herzegovina, while Republika Srpska takes steps towards secession, illustrates the futility of trying to negotiate a ‘separate peace,’” the report notes.
Wider implications
Furthermore, the authors point out: “This strategy complements wider Trans-Atlantic objectives, including the effort to deter Russian aggression in Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly invoked Kosovo as the pretext and rationalization for Moscow’s annexation of Crimea. A unifying Western position on Kosovo rebuffs the baseless claim over Ukraine – while curbing Russian destabilization of Bosnia Herzegovina. As this report explains, the Kremlin’s agitation in Bosnia is dependent upon Belgrade, not vice-versa.
Convergence replaces enfeebled Western supplication of the Vucic regime, with Western leverage – denying Russia its strategic partner in the Balkans.”
