Delaying the inevitable in Kosova

By Janusz Bugajski
International powers would be committing a grievous error if they postpone the decision on Kosova’s statehood. Over the past year, U.S. and EU officials have raised expectations by affirming that the status quo is no longer tolerable and that the question of independence must be resolved. Indeed, they themselves admit that a delay could be highly destabilizing.
The government in Belgrade has pushed for a postponement of Kosova status decisions until after the referendum on the new Serbian constitution and the holding of presidential and parliamentary elections. Maybe after these events are exhausted, they will propose a new national census or a further delay until after Serbia qualifies for the final stages of the 2008 European football championships!
Officials in Belgrade continue to exploit the misguided idea that Serbia is the key country in the Balkans. This misconception is based on the outdated notion of power balances and strategic position. In reality, because of the demise of Yugoslavia and the expansion of NATO and the EU Serbia is no longer a major player in South East Europe. It is surrounded by states that have moved forward toward NATO and the EU while Serbia has stagnated.
Serbia has consistently proven that it is a regional follower rather than a regional leader. Slovenia and Croatia led the way out of communism and Yugoslavism. And it was Montenegro that finally delivered independence to Serbia by opting for renewed statehood. Kosova’s independence can now provide a major impetus for Serbia’s positive development.
Belgrade claims that Kosova’s statehood will destabilize Serbia itself and bring the ultra-nationalist Radicals to power. This is equivalent to the “Woody Allen blackmail scenario”: when the American comedian is robbing a bank he hands a note to the cashier asserting: “Give me the money or I will shoot myself!” If Serbian democracy is so fragile then even giving Belgrade back the whole of ex-Yugoslavia will not solve the underlying problem.
If Serbia is inherently unstable while Europe and America cannot ensure that a genuine and durable democracy can flourish, then the most viable solution is Serbia’s containment and a commitment to democratizing and Europeanizing all the territories around it, including Kosova.
Claims by Belgrade that Kosova’s sovereignty will break up Macedonia and Bosnia-Hercegovina amount to direct interference in its neighbor’s internal affairs. If Serbia is threatening its two neighbors then it must be strictly censured. If it is claiming to speak on behalf of the Macedonian and Bosnian government, then Skopje and Sarajevo must make it clear that they are secure countries and reject Belgrade’s assertions and provocations.
Belgrade’s other assertions נthat Kosova’s statehood will set a precedent for other countries, from Moldova to Spain נare also highly misleading as each case is unique and there is no uniform international formula for secession or independence. Everything depends on the historical and political context, the nature of international involvement, and the mechanisms of public decision-making.
Instructively, Belgrade officials avoid claiming one scenario that could prove realistic. Postponing decisions on final status for Kosova could be more destabilizing for Kosova itself than non-independence. The political institutions that the U.S. and the EU have spent seven years constructing in the aspiring state could rapidly lose credibility; growing social frustration could turn into political radicalism; and economic development would become another victim of international indecision.
International democratic actors must finally demonstrate some backbone and determination. It is vital to have a united front on Kosova regardless of the efforts of Putin’s Russia to extract regional leverage from the status decision. Any major delays on final status are contrary to Allied policy and Western interests. Prishtina must continue to underscore that international players need to apply their own principles and follow their own interests if the Balkans are to be fully integrated into the Euro-Atlantic fold.