Five years after September 11th

By Janusz Bugajski
Five years after the terrorist attacks on New York and Washington, the United States is still dealing with the aftermath. Political leaders remain torn between two policies to combat international radicalism: aggressive engagement and painstaking coalition building. At the same time, the sources and manifestations of Islamist terrorism are growing and new dangers are looming from “rogue states” that challenge American primacy.
The Bush presidency based its credibility on eliminating terrorism and ensuring America’s homeland security. But its success is coming under increasing scrutiny. The White House finds itself embattled by several domestic and foreign policy challenges. Three major issues preoccupy U.S. citizens and the approval ratings of both the President and the Congress in handling them has plummeted well below 50%: the war in Iraq, illegal immigration, and the state of the economy.
Over 2,600 U.S. soldiers have perished in the Iraqi guerrilla war and over 10,000 have sustained injuries. Although the scale of casualties has not reached that of the Vietnam war, the inability of the U.S. coalition and Iraqi military to eliminate a brutal insurgency is becoming evident to growing numbers of U.S. citizens. Many now question the wisdom of the Iraqi intervention and critics believe that it has further aggravated terrorist threats and anti-American sentiments. Calls for the withdrawal of U.S. troops are escalating.
Even in combating the terrorist threat at home, an issue on which the President has based his leadership credentials, public trust in the administration is slipping. The government’s inability to track and deport illegal immigrants has raised fears of terrorists crossing into the U.S. with impunity and questioned the commitment of the administration to border security and homeland defense.
The slow reaction of the federal government to the destruction wrought by Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans a year ago highlighted the country’s lack of preparedness for a major disaster. The Department of Homeland Security is viewed by many commentators as a large, wasteful, and often incompetent government bureaucracy.
In addition to Iraq, two other international crises are brewing, over Iran and North Korea. Tehran and Pyongyang are developing nuclear weapons and there is little that the “international community” can do to stifle them. The UN Security Council is unwilling to impose meaningful sanctions because of opposition from Russia and China. Some policy advisors have urged military strikes against both regimes, but Washington is hesitant to act unilaterally against governments that could destabilize the Middle East and the Far East, while alienating its European and Muslim allies.
Iran wants to be recognized as a regional leader and is fixated on developing nuclear capabilities to match its strategic aspirations. North Korea is desperate for regime legitimacy and is using the nuclear threat as political blackmail. Both crises will preoccupy the last two years of the Bush administration. If America does not mobilize effective international action against both regimes, Israel and Japan may take matters in their own hands and precipitate regional conflagrations that will inevitably draw in the U.S.
All these issues impact on American politics and damage the chances for many Republicans in the congressional elections in November. President Bush himself will not be affected, as he cannot run for a third term in 2008. The only factor that may keep the Republicans afloat in November is the division and indecision of the Democrat opposition.
No credible leader has emerged within the Democratic Party to effectively challenge administration policy and mobilize the nation. And among sizeable sectors of the population the Democrats continue to be perceived as ambivalent on questions of national security.
If a major new international crises were to materialize or another terrorist outrage were to rock the U.S. the incumbent administration would likely benefit as citizens invariably rally around their leaders. Five years after September 11th the “war on terrorism” has clearly not been won either at home or abroad.