Kosova’s final status ritual

By Janusz Bugajski
The status of Kosova cannot be resolved between Prishtina and Belgrade. Unfortunately, Belgrade refuses to admit that it is not a relevant factor in Kosova’s future and as a result international actors are conducting an elaborate diplomatic ritual prior to recognizing Kosova as an independent state.
The ritual consists of three elements: negotiations, pressures, and promises. The objective of the ritual is also threefold: to demonstrate that Kosova’s independence is the only viable option; that Serbia has participated in the process, and that the outcome is internationally legitimate.
Negotiations are conducted to show that at serious dialogue is underway. Pressures are exerted on both the Serbian and Kosovar sides to continue talking. Promises are given that willingness to compromise in the non-status discussions on decentralization and minority rights will be rewarded.
The only surprise in this process is that the Serbian government believes that it can affect the outcome through intransigence and threats. Such tactics play into the hands of international mediators who simply underscore that Serbian leaders are living in the past and out of touch with reality.
However, if Serbia were to boycott the status talks then it would lose all international credibility. Serbia’s best option would be to recognize Kosova’s independence in return for concrete benefits from the EU, NATO, the U.S., and other major international players.
This is not a question of “selling out” Kosova, as it is not Serbia’s to sell, but of conducting a rational cost-benefit analysis. Belgrade’s openness to Kosova’s independence would greatly raise Serbia’s international status. It would open up investment possibilities and contribute to transforming the country from a Balkan problem to a Balkan pivot.
Prime Minister Kostunica’s assertion that Serbia will never give up Kosova is a self-defeating political tactic Moreover, Kostunica’s threat that Kosova’s independence would bring the Radicals to power also has the reverse effect. EU and U.S. leaders are not impressed by the message that if Serbia does not get what it wants then it will destabilize itself and start another war. Such a scenario could actually lead to the loss of even more territory.
Even while it faces the inevitable, Belgrade engages in a “propaganda of success” campaign for its domestic audience and claims that its position has impressed the international audience. The Serbian government is also engaged in an amateurish media offensive in the West by demonizing Albanians as “Islamic radicals” who will allegedly create a “terrorist state” in Europe. Such disinformation will further stiffen U.S. resolve that Serbia is manipulating the specter of international terrorism for its own political ambitions.
Serbia is not Russia and being a lightweight on the international stage it cannot claim that Kosova is another Chechnya and be allowed to swallow the territory and eradicate the independence movement. If Serbia’s only contribution to the global anti-terrorist campaign is to distract attention by claiming that the most pro-American population in the Balkans are actually anti-American terrorists then Belgrade’s credibility will plummet. Indeed, by demonizing Albanians as Islamic extremists, Belgrade is deliberately damaging relations between moderate Muslims and Christians.
For international representatives, Kosova’s status is to be resolved this year. Once the Contact Group confirms its agreement over the political solution, then the UN Security Council will vote for a timetable of supervised independence. UN special envoy Martti Ahtisaari is likely to recommend independence, arguing that because the two sides cannot reach a compromise while urgent decisions need to be made, the only durable option is independence based on the principles of self-determination.
China will abstain and Russia will not vehemently oppose the initiative but will seek to use the Kosova case to its own advantage in the South Caucasus. Russia’s alleged Slavic Orthodox solidarity with Serbia exists in the realm of myth. Throughout history Muscovy has been primarily concerned with projecting its own great power ambitions regardless of temporary alliances and it is time for Serbia to face this reality as well.